Cognitive Bias: Consequence Judgment Bias Cognitive biases are systematic deviations from the norm in the perception and interpretation of events and information that occur as a result of thinking processes. They are one of the key concepts in cognitive psychology and cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) (Beck, 1967). One such bias is the “consequence bias,” also known as the “outcome bias.” This cognitive bias is where people judge the quality of a decision based on its outcome rather than on the information that was available at the time the decision was made. This bias was first described in the work of Baruch Fischhoff in 1975. Description of the BiasConsequence bias is the tendency to judge the quality of a decision based on its outcome rather than on the information that was available at the time. decision making. If the outcome is bad, we tend to think that the decision was wrong, even if it was the best possible decision at the time it was made. Similarly, if the outcome is good, we tend to think that the decision was correct, even if it was made at random or was ill-considered (Baron & Hershey, 1988). Examples Medical Practice In medical practice, outcome bias may manifest itself in the fact that doctors, when evaluating their decisions after their outcomes are known, they may be inclined to think that the decisions that led to the bad outcomes were wrong, even if they were based on the best information available at the time (Caplan, Posner, & Cheney, 1991). Financial Decisions In finance, impact bias can manifest itself in that investors, evaluating their decisions after their outcomes are known, may be inclined to think that the decisions that led to the loss of money were wrong, even though they were based on based on the best information available at the time (Shefrin, 2002). Ways to overcome Overcoming the consequences bias requires awareness of its existence and the active use of critical thinking strategies. One way to overcome this bias may be to apply the principle “the end does not justify the means,” that is, judging a decision based on its outcome is not always correct. It is important to evaluate decisions based on the information that was available at the time they were made, rather than on the basis of their outcome (Arkes, 1991). ConclusionConsequence bias is one of many cognitive biases that can affect our ability to make rational decisions. Becoming aware of these biases and applying strategies to overcome them can help us make more thoughtful and effective decisions.ReferencesBeck, A.T. (1967). Depression: Clinical, experimental, and theoretical aspects. New York: Harper & Row.Fischhoff, B. (1975). Hindsight ≠ foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 1(3), 288. Baron, J., & Hershey, J. C. (1988). Outcome bias in decision evaluation. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 54(4), 569. Caplan, R. A., Posner, K. L., & Cheney, F. W. (1991). Effect of outcome on physician judgments of appropriateness of care. Jama, 265(15), 1957-1960. Shefrin, H. (2002). Beyond greed and fear: Understanding behavioral finance and the psychology of investing. Oxford University Press. Arkes, H. R. (1991). Costs and benefits of judgment errors: Implications for debiasing. Psychological Bulletin, 110(3), 486. Consequence-based evaluation bias in the work of a psychologist In the work of a psychologist, this bias can have serious consequences by influencing the evaluation of the effectiveness of a therapeutic approach or intervention on the basis of its outcome, rather than on the basis of the process that led to it. outcome. Description of distortion Distortion of assessment by consequences is manifested in the fact that we tend to judge, 4(4), 390-398.