Cognitive distortions, cognitive biases, or “unhelpful thinking styles” are characteristic ways in which our thoughts become biased (Beck, 1963). ).We constantly interpret the world around us, trying to make sense of what is happening. Sometimes our brain takes a “shortcut” and we think about what is happening or things in an inaccurate way. Different cognitive shortcuts lead to different kinds of biases or distortions in our thinking. Arbitrary Inference Arbitrary inference (also called "arbitrary interpretation" and "jumping to conclusion") is one of the earliest and most common cognitive distortions identified in cognitive therapy: Arbitrary interpretation is defined as the process of forming an interpretation of a situation, event, or experience when there is no factual evidence to support it. inference, or when the conclusion contradicts the evidence. Beck (1963) Arbitrary inferences/conclusions involve a variety of faulty reasoning processes. These include biased interpretive reasoning, forward expectancy (i.e., negative expectations about the future), or covariation biases (i.e., overestimation of the relationship between the feared stimulus and aversive consequences; Harvey, 2004). However, other researchers believe that this bias is too general to be clinically useful (Rachman, 1983). Accordingly, some therapists choose to focus on more specific cognitive biases associated with arbitrary inference, such as “mind reading” or “predicting the future” (Burns, 2020). At the core of arbitrary inference is a failure to consider less worrisome and more likely explanations for events. and experiences. For this reason, people are especially prone to making arbitrary conclusions in ambiguous situations. Beck and Alford (2009) give the example of a medical intern who felt discouraged after being told that all patients seen by the interns would also be seen by hospital staff. Upon receiving this news, the intern concluded that senior doctors must have doubted his professional abilities—an interpretation that may have been unrelated to a managerial decision. Although arbitrary inferences are usually self-referential (e.g., “I have a cough, that means I will develop cancer") (Beck, 1970), they can also be allocentric. For example, Eckhardt and Jamison (2002) note that people who struggle with anger often make arbitrary inferences about other people's hostile motives, which they call “hostile attribution bias” (e.g., “He's trying to make me angry.” , ignoring me"). For this reason, arbitrary inferences often play a role in relationship difficulties (Epstein, 1986; Beck, 1988). Examples of arbitrary inferences include: - Inferences about ambiguous events (e.g., “I heard a knock—someone is breaking into my house.” - Inferences about the attitudes of other people (for example, “He probably thinks I’m a loser”). - Inferences about the behavior of other people (for example, “My wife comes home late - she’s having an affair”). - Inferences about the future, then there is a “fortune telling” (e.g. “I will never feel better”). People who jump to arbitrary conclusions may have blind spots when it comes to: - Realistically interpreting ambiguous events. - Considering alternative explanations for events and outcomes. - Forming realistic expectations. - Accurately assessing other people's attitudes and motives. As in As with many other cognitive biases, there may be evolutionary reasons why people make arbitrary conclusions. Gilbert (1998) suggests that arbitrary inferences may have been adaptive for early humans. For example,weighing multiple interpretations likely made decision making in threatening situations more difficult. On the other hand, voluntary inference may have functioned as a "better safe than sorry" thinking style, allowing quick decisions to be made in high-risk situations. Some important details: - Automatic thoughts spontaneously arise in our minds, usually in the form of words or images .- They are often on the “periphery” of our consciousness. With practice we can become more aware of them. It's a little like theater - we can put our automatic thoughts "center stage." In some circumstances, it is useful to make arbitrary conclusions. When we are under threat, jumping to conclusions can help us make quick decisions that help us stay safe. However, there are times when we need to think about a situation more slowly and deliberately. - Automatic thoughts are not always accurate: just because you thought something does not mean it is true. - Automatic thoughts are often inaccurate. One common type of inaccuracy in automatic thoughts is “arbitrary inference”: sometimes we come to conclusions without evidence to support them, even though the evidence may suggest otherwise. Signs that you are making arbitrary inferences include jumping to conclusions about the meaning/meaning of events (e.g., “that knock means someone broke into my house”), about what other people think (e.g., “she thinks I’m a terrible person”), or about what will happen in the future (e.g., “I will never get better") Many methods can be used to work with arbitrary conclusions: Decentralization. Metacognitive awareness, or decentering, describes the ability to step back and view a thought as a cognitive event: as an opinion and not necessarily as a fact (Flavell, 1979). Practice naming the process involved in thinking rather than focusing on its content, for example, by telling yourself, “I'm jumping to a conclusion,” whenever you notice those thoughts. Cognitive Restructuring Using Thought Writing. Thought recording can be used to capture and re-evaluate arbitrary conclusions as they arise. One traditional method is to evaluate the evidence for and against an automatic thought. Helpful questions include: - “If you took off the glasses of arbitrary inference/conclusions, how would you look at it differently?” - “What evidence supports the conclusion you reached? What evidence does not support this conclusion? - “How else can we understand this situation? Which interpretation would be most useful to you? - “Imagine that you are an objective outside observer. How would you look at this situation differently? - “What would you say to a friend who came to this conclusion? How would you help him see the situation more accurately? Cost-benefit analysis. Examine the advantages and disadvantages of the inferences/conclusions you make. Are they useful? What problems can they cause? Some people may believe that arbitrary inferences are functional (for example, “In uncertain situations, it is better to be safe than sorry.”) Retrospective incongruity. Try to think of other times when you jumped to conclusions. Were these conclusions correct or were they inaccurate and useless? Highlighting the discrepancy between arbitrary conclusions and reality can call into question the perceived accuracy of those judgments (Wells, 1997).Data collection. Encourage yourself to collect data that either confirms or contradicts your inferences/conclusions. This may include probing (to re-evaluate inferences about the causes and meaning of events), risk-taking (to re-evaluate inferences about expected outcomes), and asking for feedback (to re-evaluate inferences about other people's thoughts and judgments). Testing beliefs and assumptions. It is useful to find out if you have beliefs or assumptions that